Moscow took drastic action on Friday to curb inflation, fearing the effects of ever-higher spending on the war in Ukraine and a weakening Russian ruble.

Russia’s central bank took the unexpected step of raising its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent. It was the first big hike in more than a year, and the bank warned that further increases were likely.

“It’s a surprise and on the face of it reflects more concern at the central bank about inflation and how the economy is doing what we’ve appreciated,” said Robert Kahn, the head of the Geoeconomics Team at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis firm. “It suggests that the war is proving increasingly disruptive to economic activity and raising inflationary pressures.”

While the idea that sanctions would halt the Russian economy has waned, the effects of the war are still flowing through the economy in other ways, including much higher military spending, job shortages and a steadily worsening trade balance, experts said.

Elvira Nabiullina, the governor of the central bank, only made oblique references to the war when announcing the increase. “Companies cannot immediately open new production lines and find the additional workforce for them,” she said. “When demand begins to consistently exceed the ability to increase supply, prices invariably rise.”

The bank forecast inflation to reach 5 percent to 6.5 percent this year, down from late last year, but still above its 4 percent annual target.

Experts have pointed to a number of factors at play. First, the ruble has weakened markedly against other currencies in the weeks since mercenary commander Yevgeny Prigozhin led his Wagner Group in an anti-government uprising in late June, rising to more than 90 to the U.S. dollar from about 83. As Russia imports vast quantities of goods, a weaker ruble pushes up prices.

This is particularly problematic for Russia because President Vladimir V. Putin has tied many social spending programs to the inflation rate. “It’s sort of a key plank of Putinism that pensions and other payments will be kept in line with inflation,” said Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. “They might not even be able to afford it.”

No one is quite sure how much the government is spending on the military, on everything from new weaponry to higher paychecks to hundreds of thousands of newly minted soldiers. The one-third of government spending that goes to defense and security-related matters is now classified, but there is no doubt that such spending has grown.

Mr Putin’s government has poured billions into producing weapons and material for a protracted war in Ukraine. It also showered the country’s citizens, including the residents of the occupied regions of Ukraine, with subsidized mortgages and other social payments. At the same time, wages and compensation payments to Russian fighters in Ukraine have pushed up average wages, fueling inflation and leaving many civilian industries struggling to attract workers.

The labor shortage was worsened by the exodus of hundreds of thousands of working Russians in protest against the war or to avoid mobilization. Tens of thousands more died on the battlefields of Ukraine, according to some estimates.

At the same time that it incurs these huge expenses, the government earns much less from energy exports, although they remain important. In June, the Central Bank reported its first negative trade balance since 2020.

In addition, Russians have now transferred about $40 billion in cash holdings overseas since the war began in February 2022, Mr. Lichfield noted. Immediately after the invasion of Ukraine, the government sharply limited the amount of foreign currency people could move out of the country, but those controls have gradually been relaxed.

Mr Lichfield said the government’s policy right now of spending far more money than it earns underlines the potential for ever-higher inflation. “The Russian government is afraid it’s getting out of control because it’s pumping money into the economy,” Mr Lichfield said.

Overall, the central bank said the economy would grow by up to 2.5 percent this year, effectively recovering to “pre-crisis” levels of activity, a euphemism for the period before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, Ms. Nabiullina’s announcement about the growth forecast also contained caution.

She said the Russian economy could be headed for overheating, adding that “our goal is not to allow that risk.”

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